Nigeria’s Credit Outlook Improved to Positive by Fitch Ratings

The Federal Government of Nigeria has acknowledged a recent decision by Fitch Ratings to change the country’s credit outlook from stable to positive. This announcement was made on October 9, 2026. The ratings agency also affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at ‘B’.

According to Prof. Taiwo Oyedele, the Minister of Finance and the Coordinating Minister of Economy, a positive outlook indicates that Nigeria’s credit rating could improve if current positive trends continue. Fitch noted that this change reflects ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s policies and shows increased confidence in the country’s reform efforts.

Fitch attributed the improved outlook to several factors, including greater flexibility of the naira (Nigeria’s currency), decreasing inflation rates, and a faster-than-expected increase in foreign exchange reserves. As of September 25, 2026, Nigeria’s gross reserves reached about $54.9 billion, a significant rise from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.

The agency also highlighted that improved reserves have made Nigeria more resilient to external economic shocks. It projects a current account surplus of 6.4% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026. Additionally, real GDP growth is expected to rise to 4.3% in 2026, up from 4% in 2025, with growth anticipated to stay above 4% in the following years.

Fitch noted that Nigeria has met its crude oil production target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026. This increase in production, along with domestic refining efforts, is helping reduce the need for imported refined products and foreign currency.

While the outlook is positive, the government recognizes areas that still need improvement. Inflation, although decreasing, remains high compared to other countries. The government aims to address low revenue levels and high interest costs that consume a large portion of its income. The Minister emphasized the government’s commitment to ongoing reforms that will enhance Nigeria’s credit profile and economic stability.