Nigeria’s political parties are getting ready for the 2027 elections by changing alliances and strengthening their support networks. However, a key question is whether Nigerians who express a desire to vote will actually show up at the polls.
In Kebbi State, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) welcomed defectors from the African Democratic Congress (ADC), including candidates already nominated for the upcoming elections. This shift highlights the ongoing competition for political influence. Meanwhile, a recent survey by Yiaga Africa shows that while interest in voting is rising, confidence in the electoral process remains low.
In Kebbi, Governor Nasir Idris accepted members of the ADC Legacy Group into the APC. This group includes candidates who had previously secured nominations for the 2027 elections. Their departure raises concerns for the ADC about maintaining its candidates and political structures. However, the political landscape is not static; earlier this year, Senator Garba Maidoki left the APC for the ADC, indicating a complex redistribution of political power.
The Yiaga Africa survey, conducted in September, revealed that 84% of respondents are likely to vote, an increase from 73% in March. Yet, only 47% consider themselves very likely to participate. Moreover, 61% of those surveyed expressed fear that violence could prevent them from voting, indicating a significant barrier to electoral participation.
Public dissatisfaction with the current government is also noteworthy. Over half of the respondents disapprove of President Bola Tinubu’s performance, and many are motivated by a desire for leadership change. However, opposition parties must work hard to convert this dissatisfaction into support, as not all unhappy voters will automatically choose an alternative candidate.
The youth demographic, which could significantly influence the elections, shows a participation gap. Only 40% of younger respondents are very likely to vote, compared to 64% of older voters. This highlights the need for political engagement strategies that resonate with younger Nigerians.
As the elections approach, the focus will be on whether political parties can mobilize their supporters effectively and whether voters will feel safe and confident enough to participate. The outcome of the 2027 elections will depend not just on political maneuvering but on the actual turnout of voters on election day.
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