Afrinvest Sounds Alarm: Nigeria’s Ambitious $1 Trillion GDP Target at Risk

An ambitious goal to transform Nigeria’s economy into a $1 trillion powerhouse by 2030 is under threat from significant economic headwinds, according to a new report from leading financial advisory firm, Afrinvest. The report, titled “Beyond Silver Linings: Statistical Gains, Social Strains,” cautions that despite some positive indicators, the country’s current growth trajectory is not fast enough to meet the administration’s target.

The analysis, released in July 2025, posits that Nigeria must achieve an annual nominal GDP growth of at least 22% and stabilize its exchange rate to below N1,200 per dollar to reach the goal. However, financial experts believe the economy is currently growing at a much slower pace, casting serious doubt on the feasibility of the 2030 vision.

While recent government reforms have led to some successes—such as a notable surge in capital importation and progress in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) bank recapitalisation drive—the report highlights a number of critical factors that continue to hold the economy back. High inflation, particularly in food prices, is eroding the purchasing power of citizens and creating a “social strain” that contradicts the “statistical gains” of recent economic data.

Other persistent issues include the nation’s fragile power sector, which continues to suffer from liquidity shortfalls and poor infrastructure. Furthermore, low oil production, driven by theft and underinvestment, and a struggle to attract long-term Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) over more volatile portfolio investments are major barriers to sustainable growth.

The Afrinvest report, corroborated by similar analyses from other financial institutions, serves as a stark reminder that an ambitious target requires equally ambitious and decisive policy action. It urges the government to accelerate reforms across all sectors, including enhancing oil production, tackling insecurity, and addressing food security issues. Without a renewed focus on these fundamental structural challenges, Nigeria’s path to a $1 trillion economy may prove to be an uphill battle.