“15 Northern States Will Crash in 3 Months!” — OAU Don Blasts Atiku Over Fuel Subsidy Promise, Calls Campaign Vow Cheap Populism

A renowned professor of economic history and lawyer at Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Tunji Ogunyemi, has launched a blistering critique against former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, warning that any attempt to reintroduce petrol subsidies will trigger the financial collapse of more than 15 northern states within three months.

Ogunyemi delivered the warning during an appearance on Open Forum 360, a public affairs podcast hosted by journalist Dare Adekanmbi. He was responding to the campaign pledge by Atiku, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), who promised to restore fuel subsidies to ease the crushing cost of living if elected to power in the 2027 general elections.

Dismissing the proposal as reckless and economically catastrophic, Ogunyemi stated that reversing the subsidy removal policy would deal a mortal blow to the Federation Account, which serves as the sole financial lifeline keeping state governments afloat. According to him, the Federation Account is the jugular of more than 30 states across the country, with only about four entities—chiefly Lagos, Delta, and Rivers—having the internally generated revenue muscle to function without monthly federal handouts.

The don argued that while oil-producing states and commercial hubs might manage to stay solvent during a revenue drought, landlocked and low-revenue states, such as Taraba and others across the northern region, would immediately run out of cash. He warned that if the accruals flowing into the central federation pool are slashed to bankroll petrol subsidies once again, over 15 states in the North will simply implode within 90 days.

Ogunyemi mapped out four immediate systemic crises that would follow: a catastrophic shrinkage of the national purse, a painful return to an era where state governments cannot pay basic workers’ salaries let alone gratuities and pensions, the complete paralysis of the Federal Government’s capital and recurrent budgets, and an inevitable sovereign debt default that would destroy Nigeria’s international credit rating.

Taking aim at Atiku’s political stance, the academic accused the former vice-president of playing to the gallery and exploiting the genuine economic hardship facing citizens for electoral advantage. Ogunyemi stressed that given Atiku’s extensive experience in public administration and his previous role overseeing national economic policy, he ought to know better than to dangle populist promises that could bankrupt the republic. He urged the opposition leader to stop being opaque and tell voters the hard truth about the destructive trade-offs of subsidy regimes.

While Atiku’s policy team has sought to clarify that his proposal involves a targeted, transparently audited support mechanism for domestic refining rather than an open import racket, Ogunyemi insisted that any fiscal policy diverting trillions from the Federation Account back into fuel pricing remains an invitation to national insolvency.