Political Forecast: El-Rufai Predicts Tinubu’s Third-Place Finish in 2027 Presidential Election

In a bold and highly controversial political forecast, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has predicted a third-place finish for President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election. El-Rufai, who has become a vocal critic of the administration he helped bring to power, stated in a television interview that his prediction is based on extensive polling and a careful analysis of the current political landscape.

“I have done my maths,” El-Rufai said, “and we have done some polling in many parts of the country, particularly in the South-East and the North. President Tinubu has a 91% disapproval rating; even in Lagos, he has a 78% disapproval rating.” He urged Nigerians to evaluate their lives since Tinubu’s inauguration, asking them to consider giving “some other people a chance” if their circumstances have not improved.

This statement is the latest in a series of attacks from the former governor, whose political relationship with President Tinubu has soured significantly. El-Rufai, a founding member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), has publicly stated that his support for Tinubu in the 2023 elections was out of party loyalty, not personal friendship. The well-documented rift between the two began after the Senate’s rejection of El-Rufai’s ministerial nomination in 2023, which he has since blamed on a conspiracy within the Presidency.

In response to his growing criticism, the APC’s National Chairman, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, has fired back at El-Rufai, urging him and other northern political figures interested in the presidency to wait until 2031, when Tinubu would have completed his two terms. The party and the Presidency have largely dismissed El-Rufai’s claims, characterizing them as the actions of a disgruntled politician whose ambition was not met.

El-Rufai has since defected from the APC and has been actively involved in forming a new opposition coalition that includes prominent figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party’s Peter Obi. The coalition, reportedly operating under the banner of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), aims to present a united front to challenge the APC in 2027. His latest prediction, therefore, is widely seen as a strategic move to undermine the current administration and rally support for the nascent opposition alliance.